Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
