Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
